Bitcoin steadies near $80,400 ahead of the Fed decision

A still limited rebound

Bitcoin was trading around $80,400 in CoinDesk's market report published on 26 October, after a low near $79,300 during the Asian session. It thus returned to a level close to that seen at midnight UTC. This snapshot describes the start of the day; it is not a real-time quote. In a market open continuously, the choice of comparison time can significantly change the interpretation of a daily move.

Other cryptoassets were not all moving in the same direction. Ether edged lower, and the DeFi index was the only CoinDesk index cited in the report to rise. A sector index combines several assets according to a selection and weighting method. Its rise therefore does not mean that every decentralised finance token is appreciating. The contrast with bitcoin mainly shows that the leading asset's stabilisation was not spreading uniformly across the sector.

Waiting for monetary policy

The Federal Reserve is due to announce its decision on Wednesday 28 October. The market report notes strong expectations of unchanged rates in the contracts tracked by FedWatch. This estimate reflects the scenario priced into markets at the time of the reading. It is not a central-bank decision. The press conference and indications about subsequent meetings can also change expectations, even when the announced rate matches the dominant scenario.

Rates affect financing costs and returns on dollar investments. Their evolution therefore influences choices between cash, bonds, equities and cryptoassets. For bitcoin, which pays no coupon, a high bond yield can make other investments more competitive. This mechanism does not, however, dictate an automatic price direction: anticipated information may already be reflected in prices, while leveraged positions sometimes amplify the response to a surprise.

Oil and ETF flows

The geopolitical backdrop remains present at the start of the week. CoinDesk describes a decline in oil after weekend tensions and mediation efforts in the Middle East. Energy price movements can affect inflation prospects, which central banks monitor. However, this economic chain must be distinguished from a definitive explanation of each bitcoin move. Several markets react simultaneously to the same news, without a single session's correlation being enough to prove one causal link.

US bitcoin ETFs complete the picture: figures reported by CoinDesk show substantial outflows during the final sessions of the previous week. These fund flows measure subscriptions and redemptions in one particular channel, not all bitcoin trading. Their evolution provides an additional demand indicator. The 26 October rebound will therefore need to be assessed against subsequent sessions, monetary decisions and capital movements actually recorded.