Bitcoin around 80,000 dollars on October 26, awaiting the Fed

A threshold observed several times

The bitcoin was evolving around 80,000 dollars on Monday October 26, according to the market point published by Bitcoin Magazine. The price had fallen earlier in the session and had already passed under this threshold several times the previous days. These successive variations give the context of the quoted quotation. This record describes a dated situation. It must not be read as a quotation available at any moment nor as a level at which all investors could have negotiated.

A round number facilitates comparison between sessions and often attracts attention in market comments. It does not, however, constitute an intrinsic protection against the decline. Available orders, transactions actually executed and open positions count more than a threshold taken in isolation. A brief crossing and a durable installation below do not describe the same sequence. The observation time and the platform retained can also produce gaps between records.

The monetary decision awaited on October 28

The meeting of the Federal Reserve, which ends on October 28, is among the appointments followed by operators. Beyond the announced rate, indications on the following decisions can modify expectations. Markets also react to the gap between the result and what was already expected. A decision largely anticipated can therefore arouse a different reaction from a similar announcement that would have surprised investors.

Probabilities issued from market contracts remain variable estimates. They are neither a commitment of the central bank nor a measure of the certainty of the result. Asset prices integrate several scenarios before the meeting and can be revalued afterwards. To interpret the reaction of bitcoin, it will be necessary to bring together the announcement with previous expectations, liquidity conditions and other information diffused at the same moment.

Distinct flows to follow

Bitcoin Magazine also notes outflows on listed bitcoin funds and liquidations of buyer positions during recent episodes of decline. These mechanisms are different: a net outflow of funds measures a balance on a product, while a liquidation concerns a position whose guarantees have become insufficient. Adding them without specifying their perimeter could make believe in a unique measure of demand or market losses.

The concentration of several events around the same threshold helps to understand the attention paid to this week. It does not allow, on its own, to predict a recovery or a new decline. Subsequent data will have to confirm the duration of the movement and the reaction of the interveners. The record of October 26 therefore provides a starting point to follow the market before the Fed; it does not fix a certain price scenario for the following sessions.