Bitcoin and Nvidia Show Close Volatility, With Different Risks

A Three-Month Comparison

According to figures attributed to CoinDesk and reported by the Journal du Coin, Bitcoin's realized annualized volatility reached about 38% over the 90 days observed as of October 23, 2026, compared to 37% for Nvidia. The two assets therefore presented a similar amplitude of fluctuation over this window. The proximity is statistical: it does not mean that their prices followed the same path, nor that their potential losses are identical in all market situations.

Realized volatility is calculated from variations already observed. Annualization converts this measure into an annual comparison scale; it does not transform three months of data into a forecast for the next twelve months. A figure of 38% therefore announces neither a rise nor a fall of that magnitude. It does not further set a maximum loss. Extreme movements can exceed the benchmarks that a statistical measure built on the past seems to suggest.

Different Economic Drivers

Nvidia is a company whose stock gives a shareholding interest. Its business, revenues, margins, and prospects factor into its valuation. Bitcoin does not represent a share of a company and does not entitle it to profits distributed by an issuer. Its demand, liquidity, and confidence in its operation contribute to its price. Therefore, similar variation amplitudes do not make the information needed to understand these two markets interchangeable.

Correlation answers another question: it describes to what extent variations occur together over a period. Two assets can present comparable volatility and move in different directions. Conversely, prices can often move in the same direction with distinct amplitudes. Therefore, simply juxtaposing volatilities is not enough to assess their behavior in a portfolio. The choice of observation window also influences these comparisons and can modify the results.

A More Developed Infrastructure

The Bitcoin market now has listed funds, futures, and options that offer several ways to take exposure or hedge. These tools can facilitate certain arbitrages and expand the number of participants. Their existence does not guarantee a stable market. Funds also experience redemptions, and margin products can create fragile positions when prices move quickly. Forced liquidations can then add transactions to the initial movement.

The relative decline in volatility over a period must thus be placed in context. It is not enough to qualify Bitcoin as a low-risk investment or a stable store of value in the short term. Risk also includes storage conditions, access to liquidity, and the characteristics of the chosen medium. The comparison with Nvidia provides a concrete benchmark to describe three months of market; it does not exempt one from distinguishing the risks specific to each asset and each mode of holding.