Bitcoin: how to read the holder cost estimates tracked by Glassnode

Updated levels with a specific date

In its report dated 21 October 2026, Glassnode places the cost basis of bitcoins aged six to twelve months at around $86,700. The one-to-two-year group is near $100,000. The first level has changed since the 14 October report, which placed it at around $88,000. This difference is a reminder that a cohort indicator must always be associated with its date.

Glassnode also identifies an average cost for US spot ETFs near $81,500 and a True Market Mean estimate close to $77,600. The latter model seeks to represent the cost basis of active investors. These series therefore do not all measure the same population. Overlaying them on a chart is insufficient to give them an identical meaning.

Coin movements provide the starting point

Glassnode's methodological documentation explains that on-chain analysis associates bitcoin movements with a time and a price. Realised price therefore values coins according to their last observed movement rather than the current market price. It provides a framework for estimating the economic position of a group of holders.

This approach has an essential interpretative limitation: a blockchain transaction is not necessarily a sale. A transfer between two wallets can have a purpose other than a change of owner. It would therefore be excessive to present every calculated cost as a comprehensive record of purchases actually executed by all the people concerned.

Glassnode has also developed a distribution of costs by price band and a representation of how they change over time. These tools make it possible to compare the concentration of coins in different zones. They add a distributional dimension to an average, which can conceal very different situations across addresses.

A break-even reference point is not a sell order

When the market price reaches a group's average cost, that group approaches a break-even position according to the model. This does not establish that everyone will sell at that moment. Some holders may want to reduce their exposure; others may retain their coins or continue acquiring more.

A simple example illustrates the limitation: two purchases at different prices can produce a common average without matching the exact price paid for either purchase. A cost line aggregates observations. It describes neither holders' liquidity needs nor their intentions or the orders they will subsequently place. Any interpretation of the behaviour that holders might adopt in response to these levels therefore remains a hypothesis.

Comparing consistent series

The report specifies different data dates for different charts: some market measurements extend to 21 October, whereas the ETF and True Market Mean series end on 19 October. A serious comparison must preserve this distinction. A market price observed later does not turn an older estimate into real-time data.

The useful question when reading this research therefore has two parts: which population is being observed, and on what date? Holder costs add to a description of the market. They must be compared with other observations before interpretation and guarantee neither a rebound in one zone nor a lasting barrier below another.